Getting a load of questions on how energy markets impact my recent short USD lean, and my view on central banks and the cycle. I have tried to sum it all up in a note rather than answering all of you 1 to 1. Hope you like it. Feedback below please!

Good evening! It seems like we are back fearing energy prices in markets, and to some degree for good reasons. The Nat Gas market in the EU is clearly under pressure, while I will continue to argue that the physical OIL market looks pretty OK.

Lots of people have argued in recent days that the front-month oil fu

Finally...

I’ve spent 21 years writing about why the economy stopped working for ordinary people.

It’s not that they didn’t work hard enough, or save enough, or follow the rules. The system was rigged against them by debt and demographics, decades before most of them were even born. 

After years of chipping away at why the whole machine behaved the way it did, it all collapsed into one thing. I called it the Everything Code, because it literally explains everything… why house prices and wages stopped making any sense, why asset prices

This is a truly amazing story and big kudos to Kris!

.. So happy for him. Great guy! Please join me in congratulating him!

Hi all

I've got a favour to ask...

Ive spent the last few weeks retraining and enhancing the Raoul AI mentor. Could you please test it (in voice and text) and let me know any good or bad feedback.

Just leave a message below and my bot will pick it up and give me a report on what needs improving.

Its never going to be perfect as it is not a general purpose AI trained on finance, markets and RV proprietary data like the RV Brain (which is incredibly powerful) but is instead trained on my corpus of work and my perspectives.

Hi all, I can see that many of you aren't yet aware of the full GMI dashboard experience. I keep mentioning it but obviously many people miss the updates and don't see everything that happens on the platform. When you go to Data Center, click on Dashboards, then GMI. The whole world opens up to you there. Whether you're a free user, an MIT superfan, or a pro user, you all have your own experience. There is an unbelievable amount of information, data, dashboards, charts, and most importantly, intelligence compression that helps you understand what is actually going on. What matters to you? H

ETH vs BTC: what ETF flows look like once you correct for size

Comparing raw dollar ETF flows between $BTC and $ETH is misleading, as it just tells you which asset is bigger, not which one is seeing genuinely stronger relative demand. The fix: scale each day's net flow to that day's market cap, then sum across the window. This measures demand relative to size, at the prices that actually prevailed and not distorted by which asset happened to re-rate more over the period.

The result is a clear and consistent diverg

Guys, I know that I am spitting out Notes right, left and centre, so tell me if I need to slow down. Here, a few words on the oil market and Nvidia tomorrow ....

Good evening! A quick note ahead of a busy 48 hours. 

The economic D-Day is off to a good start, at least if you measure it from a markets standpoint. Cracks down, flat oil down.. and as I said on Monday, this is a GOOD ZONE to bet on oil prices and product prices coming down. The escalation is just behind us, nobody bets on a deal, and there are FEW people positioned for anything constructive

Explainer: Why Bessent cannot stop talking about repo markets (and why YOU should care)

This one is deliberately written for the readers who usually skip the plumbing sections. If words like “repo” and “swap spread” make your eyes glaze over, stay with me for five minutes, because this is quietly becoming the single most important machine in global finance.. and it explains basically everything Scott Bessent has done over the past months/quarters: the buybacks, the eSLR reform, the TGA story, even the FX intervention with Japan. It all serves ONE master.

This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq as suggested in my RV Pro article on the Great Rotation.

I understand that a few of you want a clarification on how today’s action by the US Treasury impacts my views, and how it rhymes (or does not rhyme) with the thesis I laid out yesterday on the curve steepening being GOOD for the cycle. Fair question, so let us take it from the top.

What actually happened: the Treasury announced that it is at least DOUBLING the size of its liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-20yr and 20-30yr sectors, from 2bn to at least 4bn USD per operation, effective from the 9th of September.. and it happened right after the 30yr printed its highest yie