If you haven't been living under a rock, you may have heard Raoul talking about the agentic economy and the rise of agents. He was one of the first people talking about this, and he couldn't have been more right about where this is going.

Cumulative x402 transactions on Base in Q3 2025 were 58.8k. In Q3 2026: 138.5M.

Yes, you read that right.

x402 is a payment rail created by Base that lets agents spend money.

Now, here's where it gets even crazier...more than 87% of those payments were for less than 10 cents. Transactions under a dollar do not make fiscal sense for credit card networks, but s

Guys, please see one of the most important weeklies I have written this year (the full report is out in a few hours). Please leave your feedback on the thesis in the comments section. I know that we have a range of subject matter experts and early investors in many of the mentioned names in the Cloud/Hardware space in our community. Wishing you all a wonderfull weekend. Hopefully I will soon deliver some better returns.

In focus: Hyperscalers, neoclouds and hardware providers.. who holds the bag, and who should?

Markets have, at least until the past few days, bought the Mag-7 and sold their supp

I am hosting a free ask me anything session tomorrow : the theme is trading

macro, but insults are also welcome as per usual (especially given how my book trades today)..

Questions below - thanks and see you tomorrow

Good morning! Must read today! I will return with a full ETF portfolio update later in the afternoon.

Let me start with the honest part, because you get enough of the other kind elsewhere. The book is up 7.9% on the year, down from 11% two weeks ago, and the reason is that the trade I have been loudest about, long semiconductors into an earnings cycle that is accelerating, has gone sideways to down while the earnings have gone up. I am not making money on it at the moment. The thesis is intact, the data is better than when I wrote it, and the P&L says I am wrong. All three of those thi

Okay, we know a bit more now, so let's round up on a hectic weekend in the Ukraine-Russia war.

• Trump tried to convince Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries to alleviate the diesel supply crisis. Ukraine didn't want to since it's the point where they hurt Russia the most.
• Trump then gave Russia the one thing they desire most from the US - a relief on sanctions and a symbolic diesel export deal.
• Trump announced an energy ceasefire, but it doesn't exist. Russia agreed to a 'refineries ceasefire', but since Ukraine only has one refinery, it doesn't really make sense. Ukraine has agreed to st

Donald Trump has announced an energy ceasefire - aimed at giving Russian oil refineries some breathing space.

Apparently Ukrainian President Zelenskyy hadn’t been briefed - but you can argue that he already agreed to this weeks ago.

Should be positive for tomorrows markets from this admittedly quite extensive chain of logic

less refineries disturbed -> more diesel for Russia to export to world market -> lower energy inflation everywhere -> shorter hiking season

1) Ukraine pushed Russia to the brink with the refinery campaign, but the US decided to fight Iran at the same time. That created a perfect storm on diesel and conflicting interests, which now pushed the US to this.

2) The Ukraine war made Russia a Chinese vassal state. Putin can’t accept that long-term. He is already rebullding relations with the US and once the Ukraine war ends, he will actively play the US and China out against each other in order to position Russia where it can tip the scales.

The market is selling off on “news” that is barely news.

OpenAI reportedly told investors that its annualized revenue was approaching $50B at the end of September, rather than the ~$70B figure that was widely reported last month.

But the gap largely comes down to accounting methodology as far as I can judge and not a $20B hole in OpenAI’s business.

Anthropic counts revenue generated through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI apparently does not. Investors had therefore adjusted OpenAI’s reported figures to make them comparable with Anthropic’s, which helped produce the ~$70

Good morning!

Let us start with the state of the war, because the development over the past 48 hours looks like escalation and is, in my reading, the opposite. Iran is fighting desperately: strikes on shipping, threats against the Gulf states, a harder line out of Tehran on the Doha talks. That is not a side that is winning, but instead a side that has watched its own exports go to zero while everyone else’s have recovered, and that is running out of the money to pay the people doing the fighting.

The US has, in effect, won the battle of Hormuz. It is underreported, we understand these things a

Another early insight into our hedge fund coverage with a few of our main convictions plus main take-aways from Macro Mondays! Enjoy!

A small confession first. I promised not to shave until the war was over, and for the sake of my marriage I have had to give up on that bet, because I do not think we will get a grand deal anytime soon. What we get instead is the sine wave: a cabinet meeting on Iran with Vance in the room on Friday, Iranian officials heading to Doha for talks over the weekend, back-channeling that reminds me of the April stages of the negotiation. Not a deal. A direction. Let us

Calling members in Southern Europe! 🇪🇸⚽️

So, a slight off-piste topic here, but let’s see what the hive mind is capable of!

I’ll be in Valencia, Spain, in November with my family and, as an avid Madridista, I have tickets for Valencia–Real Madrid on the weekend of 7–8 November.

Any members fancy joining me for the match? Tickets are on me - first come, first served! 🤍💜

China's broad money grew 7.48% in the year to August. In January it was 9.02%, and it has fallen in every month since, so this isn't one soft print.

The PBoC's balance sheet went the same way, shrinking from 50.21 trillion yuan to 49.86 in August, and PBoC liquidity has led Bitcoin's major moves since 2013 by roughly a quarter. One month is one month and this series is noisy, but if it holds, it lands on Bitcoin around November.

Call it another orange light for growth and asset prices, not a red one. It joins equities off trend and a dollar bouncing when the season wants

Micron Q4: five takeaways

1) Korea called it, again. Three weeks ago the first-ten-day export data set a record while everyone was busy calling the peak in AI. Micron just printed $54.2bn of revenue, +379% year-on-year, beat consensus by $3bn, and guided the next quarter to $61.5bn against a street at $57bn. And note that Q4 was a 14-week quarter, so the Q1 guide on a normal 13-week quarter is an even bigger sequential step than the headline suggests. The earnings cycle is not slowing. It is accelerating into a market that has spent the summer compressing multiples.

2) The cyclicality debate is