A small sneak-peak into the Portfolio Article out shortly (for Pro Members). But adding Alpha Members here for the market reaction that I have gotten a LOAD of questions about. Have a great weekend, folks! Article out shortly.

"The market REACTION (to the CPI) was the real news of the day, and I want this to be crystal clear. A semi-hot core print that clears every hawk’s threshold, a hike repricing into the base case.. and once the dust settled, the dollar was WEAKER on the day, equities were HIGHER, and oil was softer. 

The knee-jerk went the textboo

We’re at that point in the US fiscal story, late in a 5–6 year liquidity cycle. where MacGyver wakes up in the cargo hold.Pilots unconscious. Wing on fire. Cockpit door fused shut. All he’s got is a paperclip, a ping-pong ball, and a granola bar.

Go, Scott "MacGyver" Bessent.

The Chart That's Kept Me Bitcoin Heavy Since 2021, And Why That's Changing

One of the advantages of building your own index and sector data is that you can see inside the market, not just at its surface. For several years now I've tracked one chart religiously: the equal-weighted top 100 crypto assets against their market-cap-weighted equivalent. It's been my go-to for explaining the structural bear market in altcoins since 2021, and pro readers have seen it a lot through 2025. It's the chart behind my argument for running a Bitcoin-dominant portfolio.

Just wanted to share a few portfolio thoughts with you, as there are loads of moving components currently.

The setup reminds me a little of March/April, but only just a little, because we don't (yet) have that pick-up in US growth momentum that we saw back then, when everybody had turned bearish on macro due to the war. But there IS a big reminiscent part, which is the big "value gap" between semiconductor stocks and the almost live trade data that we get from Korea.

So I am tempted to say that there is a big catch-up trade in the making again in semiconduc

This looks relevant.. USDJPY breaking down decisively.

The USD is very technically challenged against most peers now, and the story also has the fundamental backing from relative inflation spreads for example, and to some extent relative growth momentum in our Nowcasts.

We are happy that we have kept leaning into this short USD trade since July.

Ethereum, Crypto's sleeping giant awakens

This chart says more than any headline this month.

$ETH/$NDX has been dead money since 2022, capped at 0.087. That line just broke. Same setup as the 2019 inflection that preceded ETH's best run against tech in its history.

ETF flows, technicals, Robinhood Chain, RWAs. All pointing the same way.

The sleeping giant is waking up.

With Witkoff and Kushner meeting Putin in Moscow and Zelenskyy signaling openness to a partial ceasefire, we have the best momentum in the peace process that we’ve had since the failed Alaska meeting.

We’ll have to see over the coming days, but remember:

• The two outstanding disagreements are over future border and security guarantees for Ukraine. Everything else is agreed upon or secondary.
• The borders is a matter that can be compromised on, but the security guarantees is the tricky part. Russia demand no NATO membership or pseudo-membership wh

The biggest take-away from the weekly report is that hardware versus software odds look SKEWED again. Also take the South Korea versus Semis chart as evidence. Hardware at least 50% undervalued imho.

It has been my long standing thesis that Bessent wants the dollar weaker as does Japan and China. This is what creates demand for US bonds.

The intervention today is close to breaking a head and shoulders top. If CPI and employment are benign and the Sept hikes are removed, then we could see a sharp move lower which is very good for risk assets...

DXY looks like it getting read for its next move too..

Getting a load of questions on how energy markets impact my recent short USD lean, and my view on central banks and the cycle. I have tried to sum it all up in a note rather than answering all of you 1 to 1. Hope you like it. Feedback below please!

Good evening! It seems like we are back fearing energy prices in markets, and to some degree for good reasons. The Nat Gas market in the EU is clearly under pressure, while I will continue to argue that the physical OIL market looks pretty OK.

Lots of people have argued in recent days that the front-month oil fu

Finally...

I’ve spent 21 years writing about why the economy stopped working for ordinary people.

It’s not that they didn’t work hard enough, or save enough, or follow the rules. The system was rigged against them by debt and demographics, decades before most of them were even born. 

After years of chipping away at why the whole machine behaved the way it did, it all collapsed into one thing. I called it the Everything Code, because it literally explains everything… why house prices and wages stopped making any sense, why asset prices

This is a truly amazing story and big kudos to Kris!

.. So happy for him. Great guy! Please join me in congratulating him!

Hi all

I've got a favour to ask...

Ive spent the last few weeks retraining and enhancing the Raoul AI mentor. Could you please test it (in voice and text) and let me know any good or bad feedback.

Just leave a message below and my bot will pick it up and give me a report on what needs improving.

Its never going to be perfect as it is not a general purpose AI trained on finance, markets and RV proprietary data like the RV Brain (which is incredibly powerful) but is instead trained on my corpus of work and my perspectives.

Hi all, I can see that many of you aren't yet aware of the full GMI dashboard experience. I keep mentioning it but obviously many people miss the updates and don't see everything that happens on the platform. When you go to Data Center, click on Dashboards, then GMI. The whole world opens up to you there. Whether you're a free user, an MIT superfan, or a pro user, you all have your own experience. There is an unbelievable amount of information, data, dashboards, charts, and most importantly, intelligence compression that helps you understand what is actually going on. What matters to you? H