Let me start with the thread, because it is the best thing the bears have done for us all month. Social Capital went through Anthropic’s registration statement and pulled the metrics that matter. Revenue of $11.6bn in the second quarter alone. Compute cost per dollar of revenue down from about $2.10 in the first half of last year to 48 cents in the second quarter of this one. Eighty percent of revenue consumption-based, which is the sticky kind. And an operating profit of $974m in Q2.

Read that again, because it is the number nobody has been talking about. The $81bn net loss everyone led with i

I wish I had better news for you, but for now, the next move seems to be to the downside.

Bitcoin closed the day at $81,110. The outside bar from September 21, which kept the ball in the game, has now been lost. Additionally, Bitcoin is trading below the 50-day MA. Also, the RSI is no longer above 50. It likes to go from 70 to 30 once the 50 area has been lost.

My trade idea, which I posted about a month ago, has failed, and I sold my call options at a 50% loss. The idea was based on historical analysis that projected a price increase of about 20% within 30 days.

After I entered the trade on Sept

The GMI Pro dashboards have been cautious for many months now due to liquidity and financial conditions and the compression page has been clear about it.

in MIT I've suggested caution too.

we are not yet out of the wood either and expect more choppiness for a bit but this too shall pass...

corrections and sideways chop are healthy in bull markets.

We need lower front end rates, lower dollar and stepper yield curve and that takes time. Weak markets speed up that process

Bitcoin closed a Demark setup 9 count, came down and touched it's 10w MA and is back above it's breakout level. RSI following suit. Meanwhile DXY and bond yields continue to ease. Its looking like the reset is over and the next leg up could be upon us.

This goes out to my hedge fund clients tomorrow morning.

Let me start with the story, because it is the one that matters for everything we have written for a month. Per draft IPO documents reviewed by the Journal, Anthropic could spend $750bn on obtaining computing capacity in the coming years. A month ago the same prospectus said $518bn over roughly a decade, 80% of it non-cancelable. A year ago the company told investors it expected about $180bn of server-leasing spend through 2029.

So the number has quadrupled in twelve months, and the loss has grown with it: $80.7bn of net loss in the first

Finally, a chance to write a daily that isn’t written on the back of a bloodbath. It seems like semis stopped where they needed to. But see more below...

Let me start with the general principle, because it explains both the French riots and the neocloud sell-off with one idea. Nothing is out of the ordinary about seeing a lot more focus on credit, on budget fundamentals, on balance-sheet fundamentals, when there is a hiking cycle. You neglect such stuff when money is free.

Now that we have turned from a cutting cycle to a hiking cycle, all of it shows up again, and the market goes looking for th

If you haven't been living under a rock, you may have heard Raoul talking about the agentic economy and the rise of agents. He was one of the first people talking about this, and he couldn't have been more right about where this is going.

Cumulative x402 transactions on Base in Q3 2025 were 58.8k. In Q3 2026: 138.5M.

Yes, you read that right.

x402 is a payment rail created by Base that lets agents spend money.

Now, here's where it gets even crazier...more than 87% of those payments were for less than 10 cents. Transactions under a dollar do not make fiscal sense for credit card networks, but s

Guys, please see one of the most important weeklies I have written this year (the full report is out in a few hours). Please leave your feedback on the thesis in the comments section. I know that we have a range of subject matter experts and early investors in many of the mentioned names in the Cloud/Hardware space in our community. Wishing you all a wonderfull weekend. Hopefully I will soon deliver some better returns.

In focus: Hyperscalers, neoclouds and hardware providers.. who holds the bag, and who should?

Markets have, at least until the past few days, bought the Mag-7 and sold their supp

I am hosting a free ask me anything session tomorrow : the theme is trading

macro, but insults are also welcome as per usual (especially given how my book trades today)..

Questions below - thanks and see you tomorrow

Good morning! Must read today! I will return with a full ETF portfolio update later in the afternoon.

Let me start with the honest part, because you get enough of the other kind elsewhere. The book is up 7.9% on the year, down from 11% two weeks ago, and the reason is that the trade I have been loudest about, long semiconductors into an earnings cycle that is accelerating, has gone sideways to down while the earnings have gone up. I am not making money on it at the moment. The thesis is intact, the data is better than when I wrote it, and the P&L says I am wrong. All three of those thi