China's broad money grew 7.48% in the year to August. In January it was 9.02%, and it has fallen in every month since, so this isn't one soft print.

The PBoC's balance sheet went the same way, shrinking from 50.21 trillion yuan to 49.86 in August, and PBoC liquidity has led Bitcoin's major moves since 2013 by roughly a quarter. One month is one month and this series is noisy, but if it holds, it lands on Bitcoin around November.

Call it another orange light for growth and asset prices, not a red one. It joins equities off trend and a dollar bouncing when the season wants

Micron Q4: five takeaways

1) Korea called it, again. Three weeks ago the first-ten-day export data set a record while everyone was busy calling the peak in AI. Micron just printed $54.2bn of revenue, +379% year-on-year, beat consensus by $3bn, and guided the next quarter to $61.5bn against a street at $57bn. And note that Q4 was a 14-week quarter, so the Q1 guide on a normal 13-week quarter is an even bigger sequential step than the headline suggests. The earnings cycle is not slowing. It is accelerating into a market that has spent the summer compressing multiples.

2) The cyclicality debate is

A couple of reminders before I share this daily (from our Hedge Fund coverage, which is priced in the tens of thousands of USDs).

First, remember that this is shared exclusively with Alpha and Pro Members (some of it only with Pro Members). So while videos/PDFs may look like the official content of the tiers, remember that the notes are also tiered and include MASSIVE value as well.

Second, we are working live to ensure a better dynamic experience in portfolios via notes and "alarms" as well. Stay tuned!

Let us start with the nowcasts, because they tell the story of the week in two lines. The US

Hey Alpha/Pro Members!

I’ve received a load of feedback on the ETF portfolio, so I wanted to address it here and get some more feedback and gather some information.

How would you like to see updates on the Alpha ETF portfolio?

For starters, I’ll be honest with you (and that has been transparent from the start). The Alpha ETF portfolio is a semi-static expression of the themes that we take more dynamic risk within in the Pro Portfolio (which is effectively a live version of my own holding company trading strategy).

So while I have been active within the themes in my Pro Portfolio, the Alpha portfo

Julien’s X Post 👌

Explained so so well

https://x.com/bitteljulien/status/2103399846958727287?s=46

As anticipated, we are now getting "Hormuz hope" during the Chinese visit to the US. Reuters is reporting on a potential phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

This goes hand in hand with our assessment that the IRGC is cash-constrained and will struggle to pay its soldiers in October, as well as Trump's obvious need to try to contain prices ahead of the midterms.

The war moves in sine waves, and we are past peak escalation here. We maintain a short oil / short USD lean.

Just wanted to give my colleague Jamie a big round of applause on his calls and allocation recently - tremendous stuff and timing!

RISK-ON — Liquidity is rising and the economy is growing — the environment that favours owning risk assets.

What would make it stronger: Equities getting back in trend — the one asset the season favours that is pulling back, and has been since Jul 2026. That takes it to 5 of 6.

What would break it: ISM through 50 — now 54.6 index pts; Global liquidity YoY through 0 — now 5.52% YoY; SLOOS tightening spike — now 0 net %, trips at 20 net %.

The live dashboard is in the app under Data Center > Dashboards > GMI. For the deeper interpretation of the data, read my weekly pieces.

​

For more informati

$SUI

I know most of you have given up on the trade or are having feelings of regret and misery ( or hating me).

Me? I've just been increasingly bullish throughout, added at every weak point that I can, and I'm watching this chart closely. SUI dominance, I think, will explode higher. 

I also understand that many of you bought in at higher prices and are feeling shit after the big drawdown but today's drawdown was in line with the risk curve and there's nothing fundamentally changed in the story. In fact in my mind, the story has got increasingly stronger every day. This is why I k

SUI's relative strength is encouraging. It's behaving constructively after breaking out of the distribution channel. If price can overcome resistance from the underside of the megaphone pattern, then 1.30 becomes increasingly likely.

Donald Trump has announced a deal with Denmark over the future of Greenland after years of threats and disagremeents.

Based on the post, the deal contains:

• Full US military freedom over Greenland (status quo since 1951)
• No third party bases (status quo since 1951, but not specifically written)
• Vague joint investment plan into the defense of Greenland

The Greenland deal proves that the Trump administration operates on hedge fund logic - and that’s why they continually clash with Europe.

What Trump achieves with the Greenland deal is to remove the absolute tail risk, meaning the absolute worst case sc